The response of diatom assemblages in a Jamaican coastal lagoon to hurricane and drought activity over the past millennium
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Reconstructing pre-industrial hurricane activity and aridity from natural archives places modern trends within the context of long-term natural variability. The first reconstruction of Atlantic hurricane activity in Jamaica was based on a sediment record previously obtained from a coastal lagoon. Specifically, an Extended Hurricane Activity (EHA) index was developed from high-resolution geochemical data that linked fluctuations in lake-level changes to rainfall variability associated with hurricane activity. Here, we analyse the same sediment core from which the EHA index was developed to assess the response of biological indicators, namely fossil diatom assemblages and sediment chlorophyll a (chl- a) concentrations, to hydrometeorological events (tropical cyclone-induced precipitation and droughts) over the past ~1500 years. The diatom assemblages responded sensitively to changes in salinity associated with lake-level changes driven by the balance of precipitation and evaporation. Aquatic production (inferred from sediment chl- a, which includes its main diagenetic products) and salinity (inferred from ITRAX TM µXRF chlorine counts) vary inversely following ca. 1300 CE, likely due to enhanced nutrient delivery from freshwater runoff during periods of elevated precipitation. Although the temporal resolution of our biological data is less-well resolved than that of the geochemical record, it generally tracks long-term trends in rainfall variability inferred by the EHA index over the past millennium. This further demonstrates the potential of using biological proxies from coastal lagoons to track past hurricane activity and aridity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".