DOP90 Physician global assessment of IBD Activity is associated with COVID-19 severity in patients aged less than 50 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background SECURE-IBD is an international database that monitors COVID-19 outcomes in IBD patients. We examined the influence of IBD activity (reflected by Physician Global Assessment (PGA)) on COVID-19 severity, while exploring the modifying effect of age. Methods We analyzed 3,028 cases reported to SECURE-IBD from March 13-November 17, 2020. PGA was categorized as remission/mild (reference) vs moderate vs severe. Outcomes used as surrogates of severe SARS-CoV2 infection were hospitalization and a composite of ICU/ventilation/death. Using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to account for clustering by country, we determined the unadjusted association between disease activity and COVID-19 outcomes, overall and by age decade. We included the following covariates in multivariable GEE models a priori: time of COVID-19 diagnosis, age, sex, comorbidities (0, 1, ≥2), IBD type, systemic corticosteroids (CS), anti-TNF monotherapy, anti-TNF plus immune modulator, immune modulator monotherapy, and mesalamine. We included additional covariates (country GDP, race, BMI, anti-integrins and ustekinumab) if they changed the estimate by ≥10%. We also built models stratified by age; the age cut-off for stratification was determined using Joinpoint regression (selecting the age at which outcome rates significantly changed). Results COVID-19 was more severe in patients with more active IBD: hospitalization rates 19% (remission/mild), 26% (moderate) and 45% (severe); ICU/ventilation/death rates 5% (remission/mild), 6% (moderate) and 12% (severe) (p<0.05, Figure 1). In unadjusted analyses, higher PGA was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization (moderate: OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.24–1.88; severe: OR 3.30, 95% CI 2.44–4.46) and ICU/ventilation/death (moderate: OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.10–1.87; severe: OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.71–3.90). As per Figure 2, the magnitude of association between severe PGA (vs remission/mild) and adverse outcomes was greatest in patients ≤50 years. Joinpoint regression also supported a significant change in the rate of ICU/ventilation/death at 50 years. In multivariable analyses (Figure 3), PGA remained significantly associated with hospitalization, but not ICU/ventilation/death. However, in multivariable analyses stratified by age, PGA was consistently associated with both hospitalization and ICU/ventilation/death in patients ≤50, but not >50 years. Conclusion Our data suggest an association between IBD activity, as assessed by PGA, and severe COVID-19 outcome with an increased risk in younger patients. Adequate IBD treatment despite the pandemic is needed to avert poor outcome to symptomatic SARS-CoV2 infections.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".