Transient simulations over the Common Era in PMIP4/CMIP6
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Common Era (CE, i.e. the two millennia before the industrialization) is among the periods selected by the Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for transient experiments contributing to PMIP4. For PMIP4, novel estimates and updates of external forcing have been compiled (Jungclaus et al., GMD, 2017). In addition to the Tier-1 category simulation “past1000” for the period 850 CE to 1849 CE, the Tier-3 “past2k” experiment covers the entire CE. After serious delays, the ESGF is now being filled by modeling groups running the transient simulations. Here we provide an overview of the simulations, discuss the range of applied models, and present first results of common analyses from past1000 and subsequent historical simulations. We discuss the long-term climate evolution, the range of internally-generated and externally-forced variability and specific aspects of the response to volcanic forcing. Another focus is the presentation of the first MPI-ESM ‘past2k’ simulations and their extension to include water isotopes in MPI-ESM-WISO. These simulations extend the pool of current ESM simulations into the 1st millennium CE and represent an important basis to assess the models’ response to external forcing and improved model-data comparison. We analyze regional trends and variations over the last 2000 years in comparison with PAGES2k reconstructions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".