Internal variability and temperature scaling of future sub-daily rainfall return levels over Europe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The range of sub-daily extreme precipitation due to internal variability is quantified within the single model initial-condition large ensemble featuring 50 members of the Canadian regional climate model, version 5 (CRCM5) under the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5. Ten-year return levels of sub-daily precipitation are calculated for three future periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099) and hourly to 24-hourly aggregations over a European domain. The return levels are found to increase by 4%–8% for every future 30 year period averaged for the study area, where short-duration rainfall intensities increase to a greater extent than longer-duration rainfall intensities. The ranges between the median of the 50 members and the 5th and 95th quantile amount to −15.6%–19.3%, −16.0%–20.1%, and −16.5%–20.9% for the near, mid and far future, respectively. It is also shown that the scaling of the precipitation increase with temperature (Clausius–Clapeyron scaling) exhibits substantial variations between the 50 CRCM5 members at regional aggregations. These findings illustrate the large impact of internal variability on the uncertainty of extreme precipitation return level estimates. Here, regions of significant changes are identified, where future median extreme precipitation exceeds the 95th quantile of the reference period (1980–2009). These regions are located in northern Europe, central Europe and the eastern part of the Mediterranean.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".