Contagion in the West: The Survival and Success of the CCF-NDP in Western Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The CCF-NDP is the lone survivor of a number of new political parties to emerge in Western Canada around the mid-twentieth century. While most of those parties long ago disappeared, the CCF-NDP has not only survived, but has thrived. The CCF-NDP has successfully formed government in all four western provinces, even as it faces a very different combination of parties in each. In Alberta, the NDP first formed government in 2015, an astounding seventy-five years after its first election in the province. How did the CCF-NDP manage to persist and succeed in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan for so long when most other parties have failed? In this thesis, I argue that the CCF-NDP has managed to survive because it possesses certain organizational features that other parties lack. As a social democratic party, the CCF- NDP has maintained a core base of committed activists who sustain the organization even when it is electorally weak. The party competes in elections across multiple provinces and at the federal level, giving it organizational redundancy that most other parties lack. And the party has consistently been willing to reach out to new groups of voters by moderating its policies, but without losing its central identity as a social democratic party. I show this using process tracing by identifying the factors that contribute to the success or failure of several insurgent parties, including the CCF-NDP, at critical moments of electoral dealignment across each of the four western provinces.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.026 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".