Multi-decadal coastal evolution of a North Atlantic shelf-edge vegetated sand island — Sable Island, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Impacts from a changing climate, in particular sea-level rise, will be most acutely felt on small oceanic islands. A common configuration of mid-latitude islands is the sandy barrier island. Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada is a vegetated sand island near the shelf edge, 160 km from the nearest point of land, that is morphologically similar to a barrier island. This study uses 60 years of airphoto records to analyse changes in coastline position through digitized shore and vegetation (foredune proxy) lines. Rates of coastal movement are analysed to model the future (2039) coastal configuration. The analyses suggest that the majority of the coastline on Sable Island is in retreat, with net retreat on the south side of the island only partially offset by modest net advance on the north side. The different morphologies of the beach–dune systems of South Beach and North Beach, driven by incident wind and waves, yield these different coastline responses. Projected loss of 10 ha by 2039 of the climax heath vegetative community to shoreline retreat suggests a trend toward island instability due to coastline migration. Island-wide data set trends show support for two different but complementary hypotheses about whole-island evolution: (1) the island is mobile via bank migration driving southern coastline changes and experiencing sediment transport toward the east, or (2) the island is generally immobile and losing subaerial sediments (and thus shrinking) likely due to ongoing (and accelerating) sea-level rise.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".