Impacts of COVID-19 on the World Economy and Societies: Towards a New Social and Economic Order
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper reports an analysis of the statistical data and a socio-economic impact analysis of COVID-19. The pandemic started in Asia, particularly China, in December 2019 and continued until it peaked there at the end of February 2020. Europe has seen a dramatic increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths since March 2020. At the same time, and to a lesser extent, North America, including the USA, has gradually taken over and now contains more new positive cases than anywhere else in the world. In contrast, South America, like Brazil, was the epicentre of the pandemic at the end of August 2020. Africa and Oceania are modestly affected by the pandemic. Econometric estimates were made assuming that the COVID-19 pandemic continues until December 2021. The results show that the duration of the peak of the pandemic would not exceed 400 days worldwide, if during the first 24 months the number of new cases never exceeds 800,000, and in the absence of an effective vaccine and treatment. The measures currently being implemented in many countries to prevent the spread of the disease (social distancing, closing of markets, confinement, banning of gatherings, etc.) are having a profound impact on the various markets and, through them, on the living conditions of households. The number of unemployed may increase. World trade and world prices of financial assets are in free fall. The State and the Central Banks will be obliged to intervene to revive economic activity and regulate certain prices of necessity. This pandemic, through barrier measures, is causing new social developments across the planet. It emphasises the idea that science, techniques and technologies are largely limited. Health and social systems are gradually destabilised. The pandemic suddenly affects religions, socio-professional activities, cultures, the functioning of transport and consumption systems. A new social and economic order is gradually taking shape in place of individualism, notably with a return to communitarian values and the emergence of new behaviours.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".