Whimbrel populations differ in trans-atlantic pathways and cyclone encounters
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Each year hundreds of millions of birds cross the Atlantic Ocean during the peak of tropical cyclone activity. The extent and consequences of migrant-storm interactions remain unknown. We tracked whimbrels from two populations (Mackenzie Delta; Hudson Bay) to examine overlap between migration routes and storm activity and both the frequency and consequence of storm encounters. Here we show that Mackenzie Delta and Hudson Bay whimbrels follow different routes across the ocean and experience dramatically different rates of storm encounters. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels departed North America from Atlantic Canada, made long ([Formula: see text] = 5440 ± 120.3 km) nonstop flights far out to sea that took several days ([Formula: see text] = 6.1 ± 0.18) to complete and encountered storms during 3 of 22 crossings. Hudson Bay whimbrels departed North America from the south Atlantic Coast, made shorter ([Formula: see text] = 3643 ± 196.2 km) nonstop flights across the Caribbean Basin that took less time ([Formula: see text] = 4.5 ± 0.29) to complete and encountered storms during 13 of 18 crossings. More than half of Hudson Bay storm encounters resulted in groundings on Caribbean islands. Grounded birds required longer ([Formula: see text] = 30.4 ± 5.32 days) to complete trans-Atlantic crossings and three were lost including 2 to hunters and 1 to a predator. One of the Mackenzie Delta whimbrels was lost at sea while crossing the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Whimbrels use two contrasting strategies to cross the Atlantic including (1) a long nonstop flight around the core of storm activity with a low likelihood of encountering storms but no safety net and (2) a shorter flight through the heart of Hurricane Alley with a high likelihood of encountering storms and a safety network of islands to use in the event of an encounter. Demographic consequences of storm encounters will likely play a role in the ongoing evolution of trans-Atlantic migration pathways as global temperatures continue to rise.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".