A genus at risk: Predicted current and future distribution of all three <i>Lagopus</i> species reveal sensitivity to climate change and efficacy of protected areas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Cold‐adapted species are considered vulnerable to climate change. However, our understanding of how climate‐induced changes in habitat and weather patterns will influence habitat suitability remains poorly understood, particularly for species at high latitudes or elevations. Here, we assessed potential future distributions for a climate‐sensitive genus, Lagopus, and the effectiveness of protected areas in tracking shifting distributions. Location British Columbia, Canada. Methods Using community science observations from 1970 to 2020, we built species distribution models for white‐tailed (L. leucura), rock (L. muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) across British Columbia, a globally unique region harbouring all three ptarmigan species. We assessed the impact of climate (direct) and climate‐induced habitat change (indirect) on potential future distributions of ptarmigan. Results White‐tailed and rock ptarmigan were associated with colder temperatures and tundra‐like open habitats and willow ptarmigan with open, shrub habitats. Future projections based on climate and vegetation scenarios indicated marked losses in suitable habitat by the 2080s (RCP +8.5 W/m2), with range declines of 85.6% and 79.5% for white‐tailed and rock ptarmigan, respectively, and a lower 61.3% for willow ptarmigan. Predicted current and future suitable habitat occurred primarily outside of current protected areas (67%–82%), yet range size declined at a less pronounced rate within protected areas suggesting a capacity to buffer habitat loss. Main conclusions Ptarmigan are predicted to persist at higher elevations and latitudes than currently occupied, with the magnitude of elevation shifts consistent with trends observed elsewhere in the Holarctic. Our spatially explicit assessment of potential current and future distributions of ptarmigan species provides the first comprehensive evaluation of climate change effects on the distribution of three congeneric, cold‐adapted species with different habitat preferences and life‐history traits. We also highlight the potential role of protected areas in preserving suitable future sites for ptarmigan and other climate‐sensitive or high‐elevation species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".