Heterogenous runoff trends in peatland-dominated basins throughout the circumpolar North
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The hydrological implications of discontinuous permafrost thaw in peatland-dominated basins are not well understood. While there is evidence suggesting that permafrost-thaw-driven land cover change increases annual runoff and the runoff ratio in the Taiga Plains of northwestern Canada, few studies have evaluated the impact on small to medium sized basins (<10 5 km 2 ) outside this ecoregion. Here, we assess runoff, runoff ratio, and precipitation trends for 34 peatland-dominated basins, of which 28 are in the discontinuous and sporadic permafrost zones and 6 in adjacent permafrost-free environments. We calculated annual and monthly trends between 1970 and 2016 using the Mann-Kendall test and found that annual runoff, runoff ratio, and precipitation increased significantly in 25%, 16%, and 13% of basins respectively, at a 5% significance level, and decreased significantly in 3%, 19%, and 9% of basins, respectively. Increased annual runoff ratios occurred exclusively in basins overlying permafrost, while increases and decreases in annual runoff and precipitation were found in both permafrost and permafrost-free basins. Increases of annual runoff and runoff ratio occurred independently of precipitation changes in only the Taiga Plains and in the Western Siberian Plain. Runoff during winter increased significantly in all ecoregions and occurred independently of the areal extent of permafrost, although the magnitude of these increases was small compared with those of April and May.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it