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Record W3179731607

The Evolution of Oil Prices and the Role Played by OPEC

2021· article· en· W3179731607 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Petre Prisecaru

Bibliographic record

VenueGlobal Economic Observer · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy Security and Policy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBoomEconomicsVolatility (finance)Oil boomRecessionAllianceBarrel (horology)Shock (circulatory)Oil priceInternational economicsMonetary economicsInternational tradeMacroeconomicsEnvironmental scienceFinanceGeography
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

After the two oil shocks of the 1970s when OPEC was able to strongly increase the prices at the expense of economic recessions, a collapse followed in 1986, the so called oil counter-shock, due to the disagreements within OPEC and the decisions taken by Saudi Arabia to strongly increase oil supply. After that the prices fluctuated under $ 50/barrel and the periods of declining prices were more numerous than those of the boom, but each boom created the conditions for a subsequent fall in prices. The oil’s price volatility has increased dramatically in the last two decades, and in late 2016 a larger alliance/group OPEC+ was formed between OPEC and some non OPEC countries (13). OPEC + is an alliance of 13 OPEC members and 13 non-OPEC members, which together control over 50% of the world's crude oil supply and hold about 90% of certain oil reserves. OPEC+ alliance, based on close cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia, was able to reach an agreement in April 2020 and to cut oil supply by 10 million barrels/day and to extend the agreement in 2020 and in 2021, to stabilize the market and increase the prices, also with the support of other producers, such as the USA, Canada, but mainly due to the recovery of consumer demand in developed countries. In view of all those mentioned evolution my article aims to assess OPEC+ role in assuring the stability of oil prices while maintaining a balanced growth for the total global production.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.011
Threshold uncertainty score0.021

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0030.002
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.004
GPT teacher head0.197
Teacher spread0.193 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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