Investigating Pseudo-nitzschia australis introduction to the Gulf of Maine with observations and models
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In 2016, an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia australis bloom in the Gulf of Maine led to the first shellfishery closures due to domoic acid in the region's history. In this paper, potential introduction routes of P. australis are explored through observations, a hydrodynamic model, and a Lagrangian particle tracking model. Based on particle tracking experiments, the most likely source of P. australis to the Gulf of Maine was the Scotian Shelf. However, in 2016, connectivity between the Scotian Shelf and the bloom region was not significantly different from the other years between 2012 and 2019, nor were temperature conditions more favorable for P. australis growth. Observations indicated changes on the Scotian Shelf in 2016 preceded the introduction of P. australis: increased bottom salinity and decreased surface salinity. The increased bottom salinity on the shelf may be linked to anomalously saline water observed near the coast of Maine in 2016 via transport through Northeast Channel. The changes in upstream water mass properties may be related to the introduction of P. australis, and could be the result of either increased influence of the Labrador Current or increased outflow from the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The ultimate source of P. australis remains unknown, although the species has previously been observed in the eastern North Atlantic, and connectivity across the ocean is possible via a subpolar route. Continued and increased monitoring is warranted to track interannual Pseudo-nitzschia persistence in the Gulf of Maine, and sampling on the Scotian Shelf should be conducted to map upstream P. australis populations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it