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Record W3181480976 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4643

Multi-variate factor separation of numerical simulations

2021· article· en· W3181480976 on OpenAlexaff
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Gavin A. Schmidt, G Lunt

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
FundersNatural Environment Research CouncilSight Research UK
KeywordsSeparation (statistics)UniquenessFactor (programming language)Context (archaeology)MathematicsConjectureSeparation of variablesChemistryApplied mathematicsMathematical analysisCombinatoricsStatisticsComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Factor separation is widely used in the analysis of numerical simulations. It allows changes in properties of a system to be attributed to changes in multiple variables associated with that system. There are many possible factor separation methods; here we discuss three previously-proposed methods that have been applied in the field of climate modelling: the linear factor separation, the Stein and Alpert (1993) factor separation, and the Lunt et al (2012) factor separation. We show that, when more than two variables are being considered, none of these three methods possess all four properties of 'uniqueness', 'symmetry', 'completeness', and 'purity'. Here, we extend each of these methods so that they do possess these properties for any number of variables, resulting in three factor separation methods -- the 'linear-sum' , the 'shared-interaction', and the 'scaled-total'. We show that the linear-sum method and the shared-interaction method reduce to be identical in the case of four or fewer variables, and we conjecture that this holds for any number of variables. We present the results of the factor separations in the context of studies that used the previously-proposed methods. This reveals that only the linear-sum/shared-interaction factor separation method possesses a fifth property -- `boundedness', and as such we recommend the use of this method in applications for which these properties are desirable. The work described here is in review in Geoscientific Model Development - see https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2020-69 .

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.037
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.010
Threshold uncertainty score0.035

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.037
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.002
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.002
Scholarly communication0.0020.003
Open science0.0020.002
Research integrity0.0020.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0100.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.047
GPT teacher head0.319
Teacher spread0.272 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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