Did the Arab Spring lead to economic, institutional and sociopolitical changes? An empirical analysis through the perceptions of Egyptian youth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Egyptian youth played a central role in the Arab Spring (AS) uprisings, yearning for changes in the political system and for better economic conditions. This paper investigates the perceptions of young Egyptians about the AS. The empirical analysis uses a bivariate ordered probit model to examine the factors influencing these perceptions through proxies that cover political, social, and economic conditions. The results reveal that social values and ideological characteristics matter more than the standard socio-economic attributes in understanding the perceptions of young Egyptians. They indicate that individuals with secularist, non-traditionalist, and gender equality inclinations formed more favourable perceptions about the AS. Also, they suggest that the AS has led to unfavourable perceived circumstances for the Arab Nationalism and pan-Islamism ideologies, and propitious perceived conditions for further connection with the global system. These findings signal that the AS may have set a path toward a significant transformation in the Egyptian society.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".