A dynamic approach to the development of a precipitation climatology as applied to Montreal, Québec
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study documents the frequency and intensity of precipitation in Montreal, Canada from 1979–2018 as it relates to the position of 500-hPa troughs, ridges, and inflection points. Upon identifying these features, the 500-hPa geopotential height wave is subdivided into four quadrants in order to isolate the contributions of the temperature and vorticity advection forcing terms in the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. Precipitation is found to be significantly more intense in every season except summer in the quadrant where differential cyclonic vorticity advection (DCVA) and horizontal warm-air advection (WAA) are expected to promote unambiguous QG ascent. In the summer, the average precipitation is still most intense in this quadrant, but not significantly more intense than in the quadrant immediately downstream of the 500-hPa trough where ambiguous QG vertical motion is expected as DCVA and horizontal cold-air advection (CAA) compete. Precipitation in this quadrant is more intense than in the quadrants experiencing differential anticyclonic vorticity advection (DAVA) in every season with significantly higher intensities in spring and fall. Dynamic and thermodynamic properties are also analyzed. Among the conclusions, the quadrants experiencing DCVA exhibit significantly larger values of ascent compared to the two other quadrants and the quadrant with both DCVA and WAA features significantly higher values of equivalent potential temperature compared to the three other quadrants in every season. Odds ratios indicate a statistically significant association between heavy precipitation episodes and the DCVA-WAA quadrant periods. Heavy precipitation episodes in the DCVA-CAA quadrant tend to be associated with a negatively tilted 500-hPa geopotential height pattern in the winter and fall
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".