Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".