Neurological Deaths in the 21st Century in 21 Western Countries: Demographics or Environmental Causes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: There is evidence of rising neurological deaths in the Western world. This study examines any \nchanges during the 21st century to indicate whether the causes are primarily demographic or environmental. \nMethod: All data based upon WHO mortality rates per million (pm) for WHO mortality categories Nervous \nDisease Deaths (NDD) and Alzheimer and Other Dementias Deaths (AlzD) to calculate a Combined \nNeurological Mortality rate for people aged 55-74 Year Olds (lower than Western life-expectancy) and \nAGE-STANDARDISED-DEATH-RATES (ASDR) (pm) for both sexes. Over75’s neurological deaths and \npopulation numbers analyzed to determine if increased mortality mainly due to an ageing population. \nResults: 55-74Year Olds: NDD rates were higher than AlzD in every country. Combined rates rose \nsubstantially in ten countries, although Canadian and French rates fell. Total ASDR: NDD and AlzD \nincreased substantially in all countries. Highest combined rates rose from 476 per million (pm) to 973pm \nin Finland, followed by America 336 pm to 592 pm and UK 205 pm to 553 pm. Notable increases in \nnumbers of deaths of 55-74-year-olds, below Western life-expectancy olds, were Austria 77%, Germany \n52%, Sweden 48%, Finland 44%, America 39%, Japan 36% the UK 32% in just 16 years. Examples of \nmajor rises in Total neurological deaths was in Britain going from 24,601 to 103,550 and in America from \n174,708 to 436,43, whilst Over75’s neurological deaths substantially outstripped population increases. \nConclusions: Neurological death rates are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, challenging the \nGompertzian hypothesis that these increases are primarily due demographics, strongly indicating multiple \ninteractive environmental causes
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".