A Predictive Model of Chlorophyll a in Western Lake Erie Based on Artificial Neural Network
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The reoccurrence of algal blooms in western Lake Erie (WLE) since the mid-1990s, under increased system stress from climate change and excessive nutrients, has shown the need for developing management tools to predict water quality. In this study, process-based model GLM-AED (General Lake Model-Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics) and statistical model ANN (artificial neural network) were developed with meteorological forcing derived from surface buoys, airports, and land-based stations and historical monitoring nutrients, to predict water quality in WLE from 2002 to 2015. GLM-AED was calibrated with observed water temperature and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) from 2002 to 2015. For ANN, during the training period (2002–2010), the inputs included meteorological forcing and nutrient concentrations, and the target was Chl-a simulated by calibrated GLM-AED due to the lack of continuously daily measured Chl-a concentrations. During the testing period (2011–2015), the predicted Chl-a concentrations were compared with the observations. The results showed that the ANN model has higher accuracy with lower Chl-a RMSE and MAE values than GLM-AED during 2011 and 2015. Lastly, we applied the established ANN model to predict the future 10-year water quality of WLE, which showed that the probability of adverse health effects would be moderate, so more intense water resources management should be implemented.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".