Modulation of the MJO-Related Teleconnection by the QBO in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It was found in previous observational studies that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can modulate the teleconnection over the Atlantic basin related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this study, we assess the modulation of the MJO-related teleconnection by the QBO in the operational models that participated in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction (S2S) project of the World Climate Research Programme/World Weather Research Programme. The enhancement of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) after the occurrence of MJO phase 3, which corresponds to enhanced convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean and reduced convection in the tropical western Pacific, under westerly QBO (WQBO) conditions is seen to be captured by most S2S models but, not unexpectedly, to different degrees. In contrast, the enhancement of the NAO after the occurrence of MJO phase 7, when tropical convection anomalies have the opposite signs compared with MJO phase 3, under WQBO conditions is not reproduced in most S2S models. Under easterly QBO (EQBO) conditions, however, some S2S models can reproduce a significant negative NAO after the occurrence of MJO phase 7 but not a positive NAO after the occurrence of MJO phase 3. The results indicate that although the S2S models are able to predict a reasonable MJO up to around three weeks, representing the impact of the QBO on the extratropical teleconnection of the MJO remains challenging.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".