A late Holocene shift of typhoon activity recorded by coastal sedimentary archives in eastern China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Frequency changes in intense typhoons are of great concern to modern society. However, current understanding of the influence of climate on typhoon activity on the millennial scale is restricted by the sparseness of pre‐observational reconstructions in the north‐western Pacific. This study presents a 5500 year long typhoon record from the Jiangsu coast that provides the first >2 ka record in eastern China. Variations in the D90 grain size are the best predictor of recent typhoons in a second short high‐resolution core. Comparison with other typhoon records from south‐eastern China establishes a China millennial typhoon variability index during the middle to late Holocene, with maxima at ca 4750 ± 170, 3500 ± 220, 1500 ± 480 and 250 ± 170 yr bp and minima at ca 5200 ± 300, 4150 ± 430, 2600 ± 650 and 750 ± 270 yr bp . Peaks in typhoon activity in south‐eastern China (compared with Japan) correlate with damped (enhanced) El Niño–Southern Oscillation and weak (strong) East Asian Summer Monsoon, indicating a seesaw pattern in typhoon activity between the two regions. A shift in typhoon frequency pattern was also identified around 2000 yr bp in south‐eastern China, with subsequent more frequent typhoon activity. At that time there was sustained Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduction and its associated El Niño–Southern Oscillation enhancement, so Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation‐driven El Niño–Southern Oscillation changes are likely to be the major cause of the significant increase in typhoon activity since 2000 yr bp , resulting in the 1500 ± 480 and 250 ± 170 yr bp China millennial typhoon variability peaks. To accurately predict changes in intense typhoon activity, it is therefore important to understand how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation will respond to future climate change.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".