Predictive Properties of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) in a Northern Canadian Prairie Sample
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examined the predictive properties of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) in a large Canadian, predominantly Indigenous, sample from a geographic region with the highest rates of intimate partner violence (IPV) in the country. A random stratified sample of 300 men (92.7% Indigenous) court adjudicated for an IPV offense was drawn from six Northern Saskatchewan Royal Canadian Mounted Police detachment regions. The ODARA was rated from police records and recidivism data were obtained via official criminal records over a mean 4.7-year follow-up. ODARA scores had small to moderate predictive accuracy (AUC/C = .58–.67) for IPV and other recidivism outcomes in the aggregate sample and Indigenous subsample. E/O index analyses demonstrated that the ODARA Ontario norms overpredicted IPV recidivism at high scores but underpredicted it at lower mid-range scores. Implications for use of the ODARA to assist frontline police personnel in IPV risk assessment and management are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".