Modeled (1990–2100) variations in active‐layer thickness and ice‐wedge activity near Salluit, Nunavik (Canada)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Simulations with a one‐dimensional heat transfer model (TONE) were performed to reproduce the near surface ground temperature regime in the four main types of soil profiles found in Narsajuaq River Valley (Nunavik, Canada) for the period 1990–2100. The permafrost thermal regime was simulated using climate data from a reanalysis (1948–2002), climate stations (1989–1991, 2002–2019) and simulations based on climate warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2019–2100). The model was calibrated based on extensive field measurements made between 1989 and 2019. The results were used to estimate when soil thermal contraction cracking will eventually stop and to forecast the melting of ice wedges due to active‐layer thickening. For the period 1990–2019, all soil profiles experienced cracking every year until 2006, when cracking became intermittent during a warm period before completely stopping in 2009–2010, after which cracking resumed during colder years. Ice‐wedge tops melted from 1992 to 2010 as the active layer thickened, indicating that top‐down ice‐wedge degradation can occur simultaneously with cracking and growth in width. Our predictions show that ice wedges in the valley will completely stop cracking between 2024 and 2096, first in sandy soils and later in soils with thicker organic horizons. The timing will also depend on greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. All ice wedges in the study area will probably experience some degradation of their main body before the end of the century, causing their roots to become relict ice by the end of the 21st century.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".