Examining the interseasonal resurgence of respiratory syncytial virus in Western Australia
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Following a relative absence in winter 2020, a large resurgence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detections occurred during the 2020/2021 summer in Western Australia. This seasonal shift was linked to SARS-CoV-2 public health measures. We examine the epidemiology and RSV testing of respiratory-coded admissions, and compare clinical phenotype of RSV-positive admissions between 2019 and 2020. METHOD: At a single tertiary paediatric centre, International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition Australian Modification-coded respiratory admissions longer than 12 hours were combined with laboratory data from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2020. Data were grouped into bronchiolitis, other acute lower respiratory infection (OALRI) and wheeze, to assess RSV testing practices. For RSV-positive admissions, demographics and clinical features were compared between 2019 and 2020. RESULTS: RSV-positive admissions peaked in early summer 2020, following an absent winter season. Testing was higher in 2020: bronchiolitis, 94.8% vs 89.2% (p=0.01); OALRI, 88.6% vs 82.6% (p=0.02); and wheeze, 62.8% vs 25.5% (p<0.001). The 2020 peak month, December, contributed almost 75% of RSV-positive admissions, 2.5 times the 2019 peak. The median age in 2020 was twice that observed in 2019 (16.4 vs 8.1 months, p<0.001). The proportion of RSV-positive OALRI admissions was greater in 2020 (32.6% vs 24.9%, p=0.01). There were no clinically meaningful differences in length of stay or disease severity. INTERPRETATION: The 2020 RSV season was in summer, with a larger than expected peak. There was an increase in RSV-positive non-bronchiolitis admissions, consistent with infection in older RSV-naïve children. This resurgence raises concern for regions experiencing longer and more stringent SARS-CoV-2 public health measures.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it