Early presence of Bythotrephes cederströmii (Cladocera: Cercopagidae) in lake sediments in North America: evidence or artifact?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii), a freshwater crustacean considered to be the world’s best-studied invasive zooplankter, was first recorded in North America in the Laurentian Great Lakes during the 1980s. Its arrival is widely considered to be the result of ocean-going cargo ships that translocated contaminated ballast water from Eurasia to the Great Lakes during the 1970–1980s. The subsequent first discovery of the species in inland lakes is consistent with the hypothesis that propagules dispersed initially from established Great Lakes populations. Here we present evidence of exoskeletal remains, including mandibles, tail spines, and resting eggs, in 210Pb-dated lake sediment cores, which suggests that B. cederströmii was already resident in four inland North American lakes (two in Minnesota, USA; two in Ontario, Canada) by at least the early 1900s. Densities of exoskeletal remains were low and relatively steady from first appearance until about 1990, after which time they increased in all cores. The earliest evidence that we found was a mandible at 33-cm depth (pre-1650) in the sediments of Three Mile Lake, Ontario, Canada. These unexpected findings challenge the current paradigm of B. cederströmii invasion, renew uncertainty about the timing and sequence of its colonization of North American lakes, and potentially question our ability to detect invasive species with traditional sampling methods. We attempted to eliminate errors in the dated stratigraphies of the exoskeletal remains that might have been introduced either methodologically (e.g., core-wall smearing) or naturally (e.g., bioturbation). Nonetheless, given the very low numbers of subfossils encountered, questions remain about the possible artifactual nature of our observations and therefore we regard our results as ‘preliminary findings’ at this time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".