THE “FLU SEASONS” AND THE MISSING DATA: A MATCHED-PAIR ANALYSIS FOR THE PANDEMIC SEASON 2019_2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The unit cell from the McNemar’s 2x2 Table denotes the week with col (1, 2) and the Public Health Region with Row (1, 2). We calculate the standard normal statistic (z) for A(H1), A(H3), Influenza B. Each one categorical unit is in fact a pair of matched-pair data within its own partial table. The Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel Test collapses these partial tables to summate these 2n observations in a 2x2 x n contingency table to yield the marginal counts of the McNemar’s test.
 The open data for Europe/Asia began this SARS-CoV2 pandemic, from week 3 to week 14, with the normal statistic (z) entering into an identical collapse mode. These all assumed the same “V” curve as the general collapse pattern and they rippled together without overlapping. During this period China applied mandatory lockdown and they mandated masks. We should strive to be more evidence-based so that we can convince more of the general public to accept the public health measures to survive.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".