Association between chronic bladder catheterisation and bladder cancer incidence and mortality: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of bladder cancer and bladder cancer mortality among patients with chronic bladder catheterisation (indwelling or intermittent) to patients from the general population. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Population-based study in Ontario, Canada between 2003 and 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients 18-90 years of age with chronic bladder catheterisation were hard matched to patients from the general population without a history of bladder catheterisation. INTERVENTIONS: The presence of a chronic catheter was defined as a minimum of two physician encounters for bladder catheterisation, suprapubic tube insertion or home care for catheter care separated by at least 28 days. Urinary tract infection (UTI) rates were collected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Bladder cancer and bladder cancer-specific mortality after a 1-year lag period were compared between groups. RESULTS: We identified 36 903 patients with chronic catheterisation matched to 110 709 patients without a history of catheterisation. Patients were followed for a median of 8.8 years (IQR: 5.2-11.9 years). The median age was 62 years (IQR: 50-71) and 52% were female. More patients in the catheter group developed bladder cancer (393 (1.1%) vs 304 (0.3%),p<0.001). There were 106 (0.3%) bladder cancer deaths in the catheter group and 59 (0.1%) in the comparison group (p<0.001). Chronic catheterisation (adjusted subdistribution HR (sdHR)=4.80, 95% CI: 4.26 to 5.42,p<0.001) and the number of UTIs (adjusted sdHR=1.04 per UTI, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.05,p<0.001) were independent predictors of bladder cancer. The relative rate of bladder cancer-specific death was more than eightfold higher among patients with chronic catheterisation (adjusted sdHR=8.68, 95% CI: 6.97 to 10.81,p<0.001). Subgroup analysis among patients with neurogenic bladder and bladder calculi similarly revealed an increased risk of bladder cancer diagnosis and mortality. Bladder cancer risk was highest among patients in the two longest catheter duration quintiles (2.9-5.9 and 5.9-15.5 years). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to quantify the increase in bladder cancer incidence and mortality in a large, diverse cohort of patients with chronic indwelling or intermittent bladder catheterisation. The risk was highest among patients with a chronic catheter beyond 2.9 years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".