Bibliographic record
Abstract
Estimates of ultimate recovery resources (URR) for conventional gas in North America were drawn from models with various assumptions using a history match of past production and bell-curve approach. Model 1 used Laherrer's URR estimate of 42.5 tcm for US plus Canada and Model 2 used Rempel's URR estimate of 63 tcm for US plus Canada. Both models used only historic US and Canadian conventional natural gas production from 1918 to 1993. The assessment modified both models to account for stranded gas. Model 1 predicts gas production will decrease steadily. Model 2 shows a continued decrease until 2015, followed by a significant increase in production to a peak in 2049. URR estimates of unconventional gas in the US are tight gas: 200-627 tcf; coalbed methane: 50-180 tcf; shale gas: 50-150 tcf. The highest estimates of 600 tcf tight gas, 180 tcf coalbed methane and 150 tcf shale gas for the model. Estimates of tight-gas resources in Canada vary from 300 tcf to 700 tcf. The US has about 6000 tcf of tight gas in place. Finally, because of unconventional and stranded gas, production remains almost steady until 2025 before declining.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".