DNA methylation-based prognostic subtypes of chordoma tumors in tissue and plasma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Chordomas are rare malignant bone cancers of the skull-base and spine. Patient survival is variable and not reliably predicted using clinical factors or molecular features. This study identifies prognostic epigenetic chordoma subtypes that are detected noninvasively using plasma methylomes. METHODS: Methylation profiles of 68 chordoma surgical samples were obtained between 1996 and 2018 across three international centers along with matched plasma methylomes where available. RESULTS: Consensus clustering identified two stable tissue clusters with a disease-specific survival difference that was independent of clinical factors in a multivariate Cox analysis (HR = 14.2, 95%CI: 2.1-94.8, P = 0.0063). Immune-related pathways with genes hypomethylated at promoters and increased immune cell abundance were observed in the poor-performing "Immune-infiltrated" subtype. Cell-to-cell interaction plus extracellular matrix pathway hypomethylation and higher tumor purity were observed in the better-performing "Cellular" subtype. The findings were validated in additional DNA methylation and RNA sequencing datasets as well as with immunohistochemical staining. Plasma methylomes distinguished chordomas from other clinical differential diagnoses by applying fifty chordoma-versus-other binomial generalized linear models in random 20% testing sets (mean AUROC = 0.84, 95%CI: 0.52-1.00). Tissue-based and plasma-based methylation signals were highly correlated in both prognostic clusters. Additionally, leave-one-out models accurately classified all tumors into their correct cluster based on plasma methylation data. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we show the first identification of prognostic epigenetic chordoma subtypes and first use of plasma methylome-based biomarkers to noninvasively diagnose and subtype chordomas. These results may transform patient management by allowing treatment aggressiveness to be balanced with patient risk according to prognosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".