Is talk cheap? Correspondence between self‐attributions about changes in drinking and longitudinal changes in drinking during the 2019 coronavirus pandemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There are concerns that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may increase drinking, but most accounts to date are cross-sectional studies of self-attributions about alcohol-related impacts and the accuracy of those perceptions has not been investigated. The current study examined the correspondence between self-attributions of pandemic-related changes in drinking and longitudinally-measured changes in drinking and alcohol-related consequences in a sample of emerging adults. METHODS: = 23.8; 41.7% male) received a supplemental assessment from June 17th to July 1st, 2020, during public health restrictions in Ontario, Canada. These intrapandemic data were matched to the most recent assessment prior to the pandemic (~8 months earlier). Self-attributions about changes in drinking were assessed globally (i.e., increases/decreases/no change) and with higher resolution questions clarifying the magnitude of changes. RESULTS: Global self-attributions about changes in drinking substantively paralleled longitudinal changes in weekly drinking days (DD). In the longitudinal data, individuals' who self-reported increases in drinking exhibited significant increases; individuals' who self-reported decreases exhibited significant decreases; and individuals who self-reported no change exhibited nonsignificant changes. Higher resolution items likewise revealed longitudinal patterns of weekly drinking that were substantively consistent with self-attributions. Heavy DD and alcohol-related consequences exhibited similar patterns, but only individuals who self-reported large increases in drinking exhibited increases on these outcomes. Individuals who reported large increases in drinking also exhibited significant increases in depression and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Self-attributions about drinking closely corresponded to longitudinal changes in drinking, supporting the validity of self-attributions in population-level surveys, particularly in young adults. Notably, a subgroup was identified that exhibited pronounced increases for all alcohol-related outcomes and concurrent increases in internalizing psychopathology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".