Six-Month Outcomes from the NEXit Junior Trial of a Text Messaging Smoking Cessation Intervention for High School Students: Randomized Controlled Trial With Bayesian Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of daily or occasional smoking among high school students in Sweden was approximately 20% in 2019, which is problematic since lifestyle behaviors are established in adolescence and track into adulthood. The Nicotine Exit (NEXit) Junior trial was conducted in response to a lack of evidence for the effects of text message smoking cessation interventions among high school students in Sweden. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the 3- and 6-month effects of a text messaging intervention among high school students in Sweden on smoking cessation outcomes. METHODS: A 2-arm, single-blind randomized controlled trial was employed to estimate the effects of the intervention on smoking cessation in comparison to treatment as usual. Participants were recruited from high schools in Sweden using advertising and promotion by school staff from January 10, 2018, to January 10, 2019. Weekly or daily smokers who were willing to make a quit attempt were eligible for inclusion. Prolonged abstinence and point prevalence of smoking cessation were measured at 3 and 6 months after randomization. RESULTS: Complete case analysis was possible on 57.9% (310/535) of the participants at 6 months, with no observed statistically significant effect on 5-month prolonged abstinence (odds ratio [OR] 1.27, 95% CI 0.73-2.20; P=.39) or 4-week smoking cessation (OR 1.42; 95% CI 0.83-2.46; P=.20). Sensitivity analyses using imputation yielded similar findings. Unplanned Bayesian analyses showed that the effects of the intervention were in the anticipated direction. The findings were limited by the risk of bias induced by high attrition (42.1%). The trial recruited high school students in a pragmatic setting and included both weekly and daily smokers; thus, generalization to the target population is more direct compared with findings obtained under more strict study procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Higher than expected attrition rates to follow-up 6 months after randomization led to null hypothesis tests being underpowered; however, unplanned Bayesian analyses found that the effects of the intervention were in the anticipated direction. Future trials of smoking cessation interventions targeting high school students should aim to prepare strategies for increasing retention to mid- and long-term follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: IRCTN Registry ISRCTN15396225; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN15396225. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1186/s13063-018-3028-2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".