Abstract MP017: Association of Change in Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 Through Young Adulthood With Metabolic Disease in Middle Age: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Circulating plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) levels are elevated in obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM) in cross-sectional studies. Preclinical studies support a role for PAI-1 in obesity development and insulin signaling. To date, no studies have investigated the prospective association of PAI-1 in young adults with incident obesity and DM. Hypothesis: Higher PAI-1 concentrations and greater increases in PAI-1 during young adulthood are associated with higher incidence of obesity and diabetes. Methods: We performed an ancillary study in CARDIA measuring PAI-1 in plasma at exam year (Y) 7 and Y20 in a subset of 1200 participants (ppts) free of obesity and DM at Y7. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between PAI-1 at Y7 and change from Y7 to Y20 with incident obesity and diabetes by Y30. Covariates for adjustment included demographics (age, race, sex, center, education), lifestyle risk factors (physical activity, energy intake, smoking), metabolic traits (BMI, fasting glucose [for DM]), and Y7 PAI-1 level. Results: At Y7, ppts (32±4 years, 54% female, 37% black) had mean BMI 24.5±3 kg/m 2 , fasting glucose 89±8 mg/dL, and median PAI-1 14 (IQR: 8-24) ng/mL. Median change in PAI-1 from Y7 to Y20 was +10.0 ng/mL (IQR: +1.0-28.0 ng/dL). Each 1 standard deviation higher ln(PAI-1) at Y7 was associated with an adjusted hazards ratio for incident DM of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09-1.67). Each 1 standard deviation greater increase in PAI-1 from Y7 to Y20 was associated with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) for incident obesity and DM of 1.21 (1.02-1.43) and 1.36 (1.10-1.68), respectively. When examined by quartiles, the highest (vs. lowest) quartile of Y7 to Y20 PAI-1 change was associated with an adjusted OR of 2.37 (1.33-4.21) for incident obesity and 3.11 (1.45-6.68) for incident DM by Y30, independent of Y7 BMI and PAI-1 (FIGURE) . Conclusions: Higher plasma PAI-1 levels and greater increases in PAI-1 during young adulthood are positively associated with incident obesity and DM by middle age.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".