Models and Predictions for "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction at Multiple Timescales with a Single Long Short-Term Memory Network"
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
<strong>Models and Predictions for the paper "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction at Multiple Timescales with a Single Long Short-Term Memory Network"</strong> GitHub: https://github.com/gauchm/mts-lstm <strong>Results</strong> The file `results.tar.gz` contains: ensembled predictions for all models (generated from the models in `models/` using the `nh-results-ensemble` command). These predictions were used in the `results-analysis.ipynb` and `odelstm-analysis.ipynb` notebooks on the GitHub repository for the paper. the NWM predictions `nwm_chrt_v2_1h.p` contains hourly NWM predictions for the CAMELS basins between 1993 and 2007. The file is derived from the reanalysis on aws. `nwm_results.p` is derived from `nwm_chrt_v2_1h.p` and contains hourly and day-aggregated results and performance metrics for the test period of our paper. a file `signatures.p` with hydrologic signatures that were calculated from the models' predictions. These signatures were used in the `results-analysis.ipynb` notebook on the GitHub repository for the paper. <strong>Models</strong> The tar.gz files prefixed with `models-` contain the trained MTS-LSTM, sMTS-LSTM, and ODE-LSTM models from our experiments. For each experiment, there exist 10 model setups (one for each random seed).<br> Besides the trained models, each model's tar.gz also contains the predictions on the test or validation perod and the configuration file used to train the model. <em>MTS-LSTM</em> `mtslstm_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from the benchmarking section of the paper (using one forcings product, trained on daily and hourly data) `mtslstm_multiforcing_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from the section on per-timescale input data, experiment "multi-forcing B" (using just NLDAS as hourly inputs) `mtslstm_multiforcing_dailyhourly_seed*` -- the MTS-LTSM from the section on per-timescale input data, experiment "multi-forcing A" (ingesting daily forcings into the hourly model) `mtsltsm_136H1D_seed*` -- the MTS-LTSM from the section on prediction at other timescales (1-, 3-, 6-hourly and daily predictions) <em>sMTS-LSTM</em> `smtslstm_seed*` -- the sMTS-LSTM from the benchmarking section of the paper (using one forcings product, trained on daily and hourly data) `smtslstm_noregularization_seed*` -- the sMTS-LSTM from the section on cross-timescale consistency (trained without regularization) <em>Time-Continuous Experiments</em> The file `models-timecontinuous.tar.gz` contains one sub-folder per basin on which we conducted our initial experiments.<br> Each basin directory contains: Experiment A (trained on daily and 12-hourly, evaluated on hourly): `odelstm_a_seed*` -- the ODE-LSTM from experiment A `mtslstm_a_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from experiment A Experiment B (trained on hourly and 3-hourly, evaluated on daily) `odelstm_b_seed*` -- the ODE-LSTM from experiment B `mtslstm_b_seed*` -- the MTS-LSTM from experiment B <em>Related Datasets: </em>https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4072700 contains the hourly NLDAS forcings and USGS streamflow required to use the models from this dataset.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it