Earthquakes Induced by Wastewater Disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta, 2018–2020
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Although hydraulic fracturing-induced earthquakes have been widely reported in Alberta, Canada, only one seismic cluster (the Cordel Field) has thus far been linked to wastewater disposal (WD). In this study, we report a statistically significant spatiotemporal correlation between recent earthquakes and nearby WD wells near Musreau Lake—the second disposal-induced earthquake swarm in Alberta. This newly occurred swarm contains five events with local magnitudes ML>3 from January 2018 to March 2020, forming into three tightly spaced clusters. The refined locations and focal mechanisms suggest a ∼10 km long northwest–southeast-trending rupture along the northern Rocky Mountains that developed over time, during which both poroelastic effects and static stress transfer played key roles. Through a statistical analysis of all reported induced earthquake clusters in the western Canada sedimentary basin (WCSB), we propose a linear predictive relationship (i.e., the “Interpolated Strike Orientation” model) between fault rupture direction and fault distance to the Rocky Mountains. This observation-based model, which is supported by both the focal mechanisms of the natural earthquakes and the nearby northwest-striking geological faults, is a new and useful reference for future assessments of seismic hazard in the WCSB.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it