Long-term exposure to PM2.5 major components and mortality in the southeastern United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass has been associated with adverse health effects. However, the health effects of PM2.5 components have been less studied. There is a pressing need to better understand the relative contribution of components of PM2.5, which can lay the scientific basis for designing effective policies and targeted interventions. We conducted a population-based cohort study, comprising all Medicare enrollees aged 65 or older in the southeastern United States from 2000 to 2016, to explore the associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 major components and all-cause mortality among the elderly. Based on well-validated prediction models, we estimated ZIP code-level annual mean concentrations for five major PM2.5 components, including black carbon (BC), nitrate (NIT), organic matter (OM), sulfate (SO4), and soil particles. Data were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for potential confounders. The cohort comprised 13,590,387 Medicare enrollees and a total of 107,191,652 person-years. In single-component models, all five major PM2.5 components were significantly associated with elevated all-cause mortality. The hazard ratios (HR) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in exposure were 1.027 (95% CI: 1.025–1.030), 1.012 (95% CI: 1.010–1.013), 1.018 (95% CI: 1.017–1.020), 1.021 (95% CI: 1.017–1.024), and 1.004 (95% CI: 1.003–1.006) for BC, NIT, OM, SO4, and soil particles, respectively. While the effect estimate of soil component was statistically significant, it is much smaller than those of combustion-related components. Our study provides epidemiological evidence that long-term exposure to major PM2.5 components is significantly associated with elevated mortality.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".