Impact of minimum unit pricing on shifting purchases from higher to lower strength beers in Scotland: Controlled interrupted time series analyses, 2015–2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: On 1 May 2018 Scotland introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) of GB50 pence per unit of alcohol (8 g) sold. We analysed household purchase data to assess the impact of MUP in shifting purchases from higher to lower strength beers. METHODS: Data from Kantar Worldpanel's household shopping panel, with 75 376 households and 4.76 million alcohol purchases, 2015-2020. We undertook interrupted time series analyses of the impact of introducing MUP in Scotland on changes in the proportion of the volume of purchased beer with an alcohol by volume (ABV) ≤3.5% using purchases in England as control. We analysed the moderating impact of the volume of purchased beer with an ABV ≤3.5% on the size of the associated impact of MUP in reducing purchases of grams of alcohol within beer. RESULTS: MUP was associated with a relative increase in the proportion of the volume of beer purchased with an ABV ≤3.5%, Scotland minus England, of 10.9% (95% CI 10.6-11.1), following a 43.6% (95% CI 40.1-47.1) increase in the volume of beer purchased with an ABV ≤3.5%, and a 9.6% (95% CI 9.4-9.8) decrease in the volume of beer purchased with an ABV >3.5%. MUP was associated with reduced purchases of grams of alcohol within beer by 8% (95% CI 7.8-8.3), increasing to 9.6% (95% CI 9.3-9.9), when accounting for the moderating impact of shifts to lower strength beer. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: MUP seems an effective policy to reduce off-trade purchases of alcohol and encourage shifts to lower strength beers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".