A series of terribly unfortunate events: How environment and infection synergized to cause the Kihansi spray toad extinction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases are trained by local biotic and abiotic factors, with host declines occurring when conditions favour the pathogen. Extinction of the Tanzanian Kihansi spray toad ( Nectophrynoides asperginis ) in 2004 was contemporaneous with the construction of a dam, implicating habitat modification in the loss of this species. However, high burdens of a globally emerging infection, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) were synchronously observed implicating infectious disease in this toads extinction. Here, by shotgun sequencing skin DNA from archived toad mortalities and assembling chytrid mitogenomes, we prove this outbreak was caused by the Bd CAPE lineage and not the panzootic lineage Bd GPL that is widely associated with global amphibian extinctions. Molecular dating showed an invasion of Bd CAPE across Southern Africa overlapping with the timing of the extinction event. However, post-outbreak surveillance of conspecific species inhabiting this mountainous region showed widespread infection by Bd CAPE yet no signs of amphibian ill-health or species decline. Our findings show that despite efforts to mitigate the environmental impact caused by dams construction, invasion of the pathogen ultimately led to the loss of the Kihansi spray toad; a synergism between emerging infectious disease and environmental change that likely heralds wider negative impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".