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Child Marriage in the United States: Prevalence and Implications

2021· article· en· W3215629544 on OpenAlexfundaboutno aff
Fraidy Reiss

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Adolescent Health · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicDemographic Trends and Gender Preferences
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersMcGill UniversityBill and Melinda Gates Foundation
KeywordsDemographyPsychologyMedicineEnvironmental healthSociology

Abstract

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While American foreign policy deems child marriage a “human rights abuse” and calls on other countries to eliminate it [[1]U.S. State DepartmentUnited States strategy to empower adolescent girls.https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/254904.pdfDate: 2016Date accessed: August 19, 2021Google Scholar], many Americans remain unaware of the prevalence of child marriage in their own country [[2]Lawson D.W. Lynes R. Morris A. Schaffnit S.B. What does the American public know about child marriage?.PLoS One. 2020; 15: e0238346Crossref PubMed Scopus (7) Google Scholar]. One possible explanation for this lack of awareness is that previous studies of American child marriage have been stymied by inadequate recordkeeping. The present study was the first to use various estimation methods to fill the data gaps. We found that nearly 300,000 children married in the United States (U.S.) between 2000 and 2018. No central repository in the U.S. collects marriage-age data from all 50 states. Retrieving marriage-certificate data from each state individually and compiling the results is the best alternative, but not all states systematically track or make available these data. In 2017, I published Unchained At Last's findings on the number of children married in the U.S. between 2000 and 2010, calculated from 38 states' marriage-certificate data plus estimates for the other 12 states based solely on the correlation between each of the 38 states' population and number of children married [[3]Reiss F. Why can 12-year-olds still get married in the United States? Washington Post.https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/02/10/why-does-the-united-states-still-let-12-year-old-girls-get-marriedDate: 2020Date accessed: August 19, 2021Google Scholar]. The Public Broadcasting Service's Frontline later expanded on this study, adding data through 2015 and for a few more states, but did not fill in the gaps left by missing or partial state data [[4]Tsui A. Nolan D. Amico C. Child marriage in America: By the numbers. PBS Frontline.http://apps.frontline.org/child-marriage-by-the-numbersDate: 2017Date accessed: August 19, 2021Google Scholar]. For our latest study, Unchained partnered with Quest Research & Investigations, Kroll, Quantitative Analysis, and McGill University. We retrieved marriage-certificate data from 32 states that showed the age or age ranges of all individuals married each year between 2000 and 2018. For 10 other states and the District of Columbia, we used marriage-certificate data that were available for some or most of those years to project the numbers for the missing years. For two additional states (Nevada and Arizona), we retrieved full marriage-certificate data from one county or a pair of counties that represented at least two-thirds of the state population. To estimate the number of children married in the remaining six states and the remaining section of Nevada and Arizona, we looked for correlations between available marriage-age data in other states and variables in the American Community Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau's demographics survey program. We identified a strong correlation of .88 when we combined two American Community Survey variables: already-married individuals aged 15–17 years (they were married, divorced, widowed, or separated) and divorced or separated individuals aged 18–24 years. We found that some 297,033 children were married in the U.S. between 2000 and 2018: 232,474 based on marriage-certificate data plus 64,559 based on estimates (Table 1). A few children were as young as 10 years when they married, but of those for whom age information was available, nearly all—96%—were aged 16 or 17 years. Of those for whom age, gender, and spousal information was available, 78% were girls (under 18 years of age) wed to adult men (aged 18 years or older). The national number of children wed decreased each year—from 76,396 in 2000 to 2,493 in 2018 (Table 2)—but is unlikely to get to zero without legislative intervention.Table 1U.S. child marriage by stateStateNumber of minors wed between 2000 and 2018 (actual + estimated)Per capita rate of child marriage 2000–2018 (actual + estimated)RankingNevadaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.17,403.671%1Idaho5,160.338%2Arkansas8,458.295%3Kentucky11,251.262%4OklahomaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.8,495.229%5Wyoming1,239.227%6UtahaData based partially or wholly on estimates.5,600.208%7Alabama9,166.195%8West Virginia3,532.193%9Mississippi5,360.182%10New MexicoaData based partially or wholly on estimates.3,593.180%11TexasaData based partially or wholly on estimates.41,774.169%12Tennessee9,783.156%13ArizonaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.8,795.141%14North CarolinaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.12,637.136%15Missouri8,007.135%16South Carolina5,443.120%17Alaska808.116%18LouisianaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.5,106.112%19Kansas3,028.107%20Georgia10,123.107%21Colorado5,316.107%22South Dakota809.100%23Virginia7,849.100%24OregonaData based partially or wholly on estimates.3,591.095%25Florida17,274.093%26IndianaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.5,086.079%27WashingtonaData based partially or wholly on estimates.4,831.073%28Nebraska1,265.070%29CaliforniaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.23,588.064%30MaineaData based partially or wholly on estimates.810.061%31Maryland3,469.061%32Hawaii795.059%33IllinoisaData based partially or wholly on estimates.7,540.059%34Wisconsin2,985.053%35Michigan5,259.053%36Montana469.048%37Iowa1,356.045%38North Dakota306.045%39Vermont272.044%40Ohio4,995.043%41Connecticut1,203.034%42New Jersey2,225.025%43New YorkaData based partially or wholly on estimates.4,890.025%44Delaware219.025%45PennsylvaniaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.3,052.024%46MinnesotaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.1,118.021%47Massachusetts1,246.019%48Rhode IslandaData based partially or wholly on estimates.171.016%49New Hampshire206.016%50District of ColumbiaaData based partially or wholly on estimates.77.013%51Total297,033a Data based partially or wholly on estimates. Open table in a new tab Table 2U.S. child marriage by yearYearMinors wed (actual + estimated)200076,396200135,809200220,542200318,867200417,033200516,871200614,191200712,710200811,421200910,32520109,102201122,36120126,96220135,93320144,94320154,27520163,69520173,10420182,493Total297,033 Open table in a new tab The 232,474 is almost certainly an undercount because of data anomalies and gaps. For example, one state withheld all counts less than 10 (such as if nine 17-year-olds married 20-year-olds one year), potentially hiding thousands of additional child marriages, and another state acknowledged it had randomly and irretrievably deleted data on children married before the age of 15 years in most years. Unlike in countries such as India where child marriage persists despite laws to prevent it, the problem in the U.S. is the laws themselves. Marriage before 18 years of age remains legal in 44 of 50 U.S. states, and the six states and three territories that have banned child marriage did so only in the last 3 years [5Delaware. HB337.https://legis.delaware.gov/BillDetail?LegislationId=26363Date: 2018Date accessed: February 27, 2021Google Scholar, 6New Jersey. S427.https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2018/Bills/AL18/42_.HTMDate: 2018Date accessed: February 27, 2021Google Scholar, 7Marriage Licenses, Rhode Island, RI H5387, 15-2-11. 2021.Google Scholar, 8U.S. Virgin Islands. Bill No. 33-109.https://www.legvi.org/billtracking/Detail.aspx?docentry=27003Date: 2020Date accessed: February 27, 2021Google Scholar, 9Pennsylvania. HB360.https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billInfo/billInfo.cfm?sYear=2019&sInd=0&body=H&type=B&bn=0360Date: 2020Date accessed: February 27, 2021Google Scholar, 10Minnesota. HF745.https://www.revisor.mn.gov/bills/bill.php?f=HF745&y=2019&ssn=0&b=houseDate: 2020Date accessed: February 27, 2021Google Scholar, 11Puerto Rico. PC1654.https://sutra.oslpr.org/osl/esutra/MedidaReg.aspx?rid=124126Date: 2020Date accessed: February 27, 2021Google Scholar, 12Rhode Island. H5387. 2021Google Scholar, 13New York. S3086. Available at: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2021/s3086. Accessed July 22, 2021.Google Scholar]. Child marriage is as damaging in the U.S. as it is across the globe. Minors—even highly mature 17-year-olds—have limited legal rights and therefore can easily be forced into marriage or forced to stay in an unwanted marriage [[3]Reiss F. Why can 12-year-olds still get married in the United States? Washington Post.https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/02/10/why-does-the-united-states-still-let-12-year-old-girls-get-marriedDate: 2020Date accessed: August 19, 2021Google Scholar]. Furthermore, the devastating impacts of child marriage in the U.S. make it as much a “human rights abuse” as anywhere else. Girls in the U.S. who marry in their teens are more likely to drop out of high school, never graduate from college, and end up living in poverty [[14]Dahl G.B. Early teen marriage and future poverty.Demography. 2010; 47: 689-718Crossref PubMed Scopus (75) Google Scholar], and they are at greater risk of psychiatric disorders [[15]Le Strat Y. Dubertret C. Le Foll B. Child marriage in the United States and its association with mental health in women.Pediatrics. 2011; 128: 524-530Crossref PubMed Scopus (83) Google Scholar]. Child marriage also undermines statutory rape laws. A forthcoming study using our data set shows at least 34,943–40,224 marriages since 2000 occurred at an age or with a spousal age difference that should have constituted a sex crime under the relevant state's law [[16]Koski A, Van Roost K, Horn M. Child marriage or statutory rape? J Adolesc Health. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2021.10.023.Google Scholar]. In about 80% of those marriages, sex between the parties became legal with the issuance of the marriage license under state law that specifically allowed sex within marriage what would otherwise be considered statutory rape. Each of those marriage licenses became a “get out of jail free” card. In the other 20% of those cases, the marriage was legal under state law, but sex within the marriage was a crime. With each of those marriage licenses, the state sent a child home to be raped. These numbers, too, are almost certainly an undercount, because many states did not provide enough data for the analysis. California, for example, did not provide any marriage-age data and therefore was excluded from the analysis, but 100% of the 23,588 children we estimated were married there between 2000 and 2018 could have been included. Sex with anyone younger than 18 years is considered rape in California unless the perpetrator first marries the child [[17]California Penal Code § 261.5.https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=PEN&sectionNum=261.5Date accessed: February 28, 2021Google Scholar]. The world cannot keep its promise to end child marriage by year 2030 [[18]United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 5.3: Eliminate all harmful practices, such as child, early and forced marriage and female genital mutilation.https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal5Date accessed: August 19, 2021Google Scholar] if we continue to ignore the hundreds of thousands of children marrying in the U.S. Every U.S. state and territory must pass legislation to do what we demand from the rest of the world: End child marriage. Partners for this study included Quest Research & Investigations, Kroll, Quantitative Analysis, and McGill University.

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How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.329
Threshold uncertainty score0.228

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.051
GPT teacher head0.358
Teacher spread0.307 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations19
Published2021
Admission routes2
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