“Small Fires Causing Large Fires”: The rise of Boko Haram in Northeastern Nigeria and its Transnational Posture in the Lake Chad Basin
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Islamist group, Jama’atul Alhul Sunnah Lidda’wati wal Jihad, translated as “people committed to the propagation of the Prophet’s teachings and jihad”, is commonly known as Boko Haram, which means “Western education is forbidden.” It originated in Nigeria’s northeastern state of Borno in 2002, but its violence extends into neighboring Cameroon, Chad, and Niger in the Lake Chad Basin. This article provides an overview of the factors that led to the emergence of Boko Haram, its resort to violence, and rapid expansion in the Lake Chad Basin. The article argues that the Boko Haram insurgency is the result of the combination of overlapping and self-complementing factors. The similarity of these factors across Nigeria’s neighboring countries in the Lake Chad Basin has led to the rapid escalation of Boko Haram’s conflict.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".