I know it when I see it: Incidence, timing and intensity of immigration in spruce budworm
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Incidence of immigration in spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) was inferred with rules of thumb and numerical thresholds contrasting closed populations (residents >> migrants) versus populations subjected to major immigration event, based on attributes of daily time series of abundance at light traps (abundance, statistical mode, sex ratio and protandry level). The data set included time series with known migration event (Bas St‐Laurent, QC, 2013), which were used to calibrate numerical thresholds associated with immigration. The study site on west coast of Newfoundland provided a natural laboratory to infer long‐range immigration due to geographic isolation from the mainland, proximity to the coast and low population density at onset of the study. Time series between 2014 and 2016 exhibited trends consistent with scenario of closed population, including low numbers of budworms, limited variation in day‐to‐day abundance and strong level of protandry (males fly seasonally earlier than females). Time series with candidate major immigration event (Bas St‐Laurent 2013, Sally's Cove 2017, 2018) displayed specific combinations of parameters, including: (a) sharp increment (>one order of magnitude) in abundance of both males and females from one day to the next (statistical mode, approximately corresponding to timing of migration); (b) pure (100%) convergence of pulse detection interval (post‐immigration period when migrants with nonzero survival rate are collected at light traps) across traps for males and females and (c) overall absence of protandrous flight. Parameters related to immigration thresholds highlighted that females are more likely to migrate than males, as indicated by increased ratio of females per male during pulse detection interval. Aerial collection of adult spruce budworms with helikite in 2019 confirmed the preponderance of females among true migrants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".