Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to alter the global footprint of many infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. Knowledge of the range and geographical context of expected climate change impacts on disease transmission and spread, combined with knowledge of effective adaptation strategies and responses, can help to identify gaps and best practices to mitigate future health impacts. To investigate the types of evidence for impacts of climate change on two major mosquito-borne diseases of global health importance, malaria and dengue, and to identify the range of relevant policy responses and adaptation strategies that have been devised, we performed a scoping review of published review literature. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and Epistemonikos) were systematically searched for relevant published reviews. Inclusion criteria were: reviews with a systematic search, from 2007 to 2020, in English or French, that addressed climate change impacts and/or adaptation strategies related to malaria and/or dengue. Data extracted included: characteristics of the article, type of review, disease(s) of focus, geographic focus, and nature of the evidence. The evidence was summarized to identify and compare regional evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation measures. RESULTS: A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.094 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.007 | 0.009 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.034 | 0.033 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".