Blood-Based Biomarker Panel for Personalized Lung Cancer Risk Assessment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE To investigate whether a panel of circulating protein biomarkers would improve risk assessment for lung cancer screening in combination with a risk model on the basis of participant characteristics. METHODS A blinded validation study was performed using prostate lung colorectal ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial data and biospecimens to evaluate the performance of a four-marker protein panel (4MP) consisting of the precursor form of surfactant protein B, cancer antigen 125, carcinoembryonic antigen, and cytokeratin-19 fragment in combination with a lung cancer risk prediction model (PLCO m2012 ) compared with current US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) screening criteria. The 4MP was assayed in 1,299 sera collected preceding lung cancer diagnosis and 8,709 noncase sera. RESULTS The 4MP alone yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.82) for case sera collected within 1-year preceding diagnosis and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.76) among the entire specimen set. The combined 4MP + PLCO m2012 model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88) for case sera collected within 1 year preceding diagnosis. The benefit of the 4MP in the combined model resulted from improvement in sensitivity at high specificity. Compared with the USPSTF2021 criteria, the combined 4MP + PLCO m2012 model exhibited statistically significant improvements in sensitivity and specificity. Among PLCO participants with ≥ 10 smoking pack-years, the 4MP + PLCO m2012 model would have identified for annual screening 9.2% more lung cancer cases and would have reduced referral by 13.7% among noncases compared with USPSTF2021 criteria. CONCLUSION A blood-based biomarker panel in combination with PLCO m2012 significantly improves lung cancer risk assessment for lung cancer screening.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".