Faculty Opinions recommendation of Temperature-driven range expansion of an irruptive insect heightened by weakly coevolved plant defenses.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Warming climate has increased access of native bark beetles to high-elevation pines that historically received only intermittent exposure to these tree-killing herbivores. Here we show that a dominant, relatively naïve, high-elevation species, whitebark pine, has inferior defenses against mountain pine beetle compared with its historical lower-elevation host, lodgepole pine. Lodgepole pines respond by exuding more resin and accumulating higher concentrations of toxic monoterpenes than whitebark pine, where they co-occur. Furthermore, the chemical composition of whitebark pine appears less able to inhibit the pheromonal communication beetles use to jointly overcome tree defenses. Despite whitebark pine's inferior defenses, beetles were more likely to attack their historical host in mixed stands. This finding suggests there has been insufficient sustained contact for beetles to alter their complex behavioral mechanisms driving host preference. In no-choice assays, however, beetles readily entered and tunneled in both hosts equally, and in stands containing less lodgepole pine, attacks on whitebark pines increased. High-elevation trees in pure stands may thus be particularly vulnerable to temperature-driven range expansions. Predators and competitors were more attracted to volatiles from herbivores attacking their historical host, further increasing risk in less coevolved systems. Our results suggest cold temperatures provided a sufficient barrier against herbivores for high-elevation trees to allocate resources to other physiological processes besides defense. Changing climate may reduce the viability of that evolutionary strategy, and the life histories of high-elevation trees seem unlikely to foster rapid counter adaptation. Consequences extend from reduced food supplies for endangered grizzly bears to altered landscape and hydrological processes. PMID: 23277541
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.610 | 0.374 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".