Twenty-first Century Trends in the Global Epidemiology of Pediatric-Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Systematic Review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing internationally, particularly in nations with historically low rates. Previous reports of the epidemiology of pediatric-onset IBD identified a paucity of data. We systematically reviewed the global trends in incidence and prevalence of IBD diagnosed in individuals <21 years old over the first 2 decades of the 21st century. METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies indexed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Airiti Library, and SciELO from January 2010 to February 2020 to identify population-based studies reporting the incidence and/or prevalence of IBD, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, and/or IBD-unclassified. Data from studies published before 2000 were derived from a previously published systematic review. We described the geographic distribution and trends in children of all ages and limiting to very early onset (VEO) IBD. RESULTS: A total of 131 studies from 48 countries were included. The incidence and prevalence of pediatric-onset IBD is highest in Northern Europe and North America and lowest in Southern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Among studies evaluating trends over time, most (31 of 37, 84%) studies reported significant increases in incidence and all (7 of 7) reported significant increases in prevalence. Data on the incidence and prevalence of VEO-IBD are limited to countries with historically high rates of IBD. Time trends in the incidence of VEO-IBD were visually heterogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of pediatric-onset IBD continue to rise around the world and data are emerging from regions where it was not previously reported; however, there remains a paucity of data on VEO-IBD and on pediatric IBD from developing and recently developed countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.027 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.016 | 0.020 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".