The Trifecta Study: Comparing Plasma Levels of Donor-derived Cell-Free DNA with the Molecular Phenotype of Kidney Transplant Biopsies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background The relationship between the donor-derived cell-free DNA fraction (dd-cfDNA[%]) in plasma in kidney transplant recipients at time of indication biopsy and gene expression in the biopsied allograft has not been defined. Methods In the prospective, multicenter Trifecta study, we collected tissue from 300 biopsies from 289 kidney transplant recipients to compare genome-wide gene expression in biopsies with dd-cfDNA(%) in corresponding plasma samples drawn just before biopsy. Rejection was assessed with the microarray-based Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System using automatically assigned rejection archetypes and molecular report sign-outs, and histology assessments that followed Banff guidelines. Results The median time of biopsy post-transplantation was 455 days (5 days to 32 years), with a case mix similar to that of previous studies: 180 (60%) no rejection, 89 (30%) antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR), and 31 (10%) T cell–mediated rejection (TCMR) and mixed. In genome-wide mRNA measurements, all 20 top probe sets correlating with dd-cfDNA(%) were previously annotated for association with ABMR and all types of rejection, either natural killer (NK) cell–expressed ( e.g ., GNLY , CCL4 , TRDC , and S1PR5 ) or IFN-γ–inducible ( e.g ., PLA1A , IDO1 , CXCL11 , and WARS ). Among gene set and classifier scores, dd-cfDNA(%) correlated very strongly with ABMR and all types of rejection, reasonably strongly with active TCMR, and weakly with inactive TCMR, kidney injury, and atrophy fibrosis. Active ABMR, mixed, and active TCMR had the highest dd-cfDNA(%), whereas dd-cfDNA(%) was lower in late-stage ABMR and less-active TCMR. By multivariate random forests and logistic regression, molecular rejection variables predicted dd-cfDNA(%) better than histologic variables. Conclusions The dd-cfDNA(%) at time of indication biopsy strongly correlates with active molecular rejection and has the potential to reduce unnecessary biopsies. Clinical Trial registration number: NCT04239703
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".