Abstract P168: The Association of Longitudinal Changes in Metabolic Syndrome With Incident Heart Failure: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a risk factor for the development of heart failure (HF). However, little is known about how changes in MS over time are associated with HF risk. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that increasing MS components over time and a longer duration of MS would be associated with greater HF risk. Methods: We studied 8,104 participants at ARIC Visit 4 (1996-98) without baseline HF, coronary heart disease or diabetes. MS components were defined using AHA/NHLBI criteria for waist circumference, hyperglycemia, elevated blood pressure, low HDL-C and hypertriglyceridemia, and MS was diagnosed if ≥ 3 criteria were present. Using data on MS components from Visit 1 (1987-89) through 4, we used multivariate Cox regression models to evaluate associations of changes in MS components over time and duration of MS with incident HF occurring after Visit 4. Results: The mean age was 63 years (+/-6), with 58% female. Over a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 902 HF events. Compared to those without MS at Visits 1 and 4, those with MS at both time points had a hazard ratio (HR) for HF of 1.87 (95% CI 1.60-2.19), while those with no MS at Visit 1 but MS at Visit 4 (HR 1.38; 95% CI 1.16-1.64) and those with MS at Visit 1 but not at Visit 4 (1.51; 95% CI 1.13-2.00) had more modest risk associations. Among those without MS at Visit 1, those with 0 MS components at both Visits 1 and 4 had lowest HF risk (reference), with progressively higher risk seen for those who increased to 1-2 (HR 1.66; 95% CI 1.06-2.61), 3 (HR 2.15; 95% CI 1.37-3.38) and 4-5 (HR 2.55; 95% CI 1.58-4.13) MS components by Visit 4. Duration of MS had a positive association with HF risk (Figure), with a HR of 1.08 (95% CI 1.06-1.10) per year of MS duration. Conclusions: Progression in MS components over time and a longer duration of MS are associated with increased HF risk. Given the cardiovascular implications of these findings, particularly for the growing number of individuals developing MS components at an early age, strategies to prevent MS onset and progression should be implemented widely.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".