DOP62 Efficacy of biologic drugs in short-duration versus long-duration Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A systematic review and an individual-patient data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Starting biologic treatment early in the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may associate with higher efficacy, especially in Crohn’s disease (CD). Methods A systematic review and individual-patient-data meta-analysis of all placebo-controlled trials of biologics approved for IBD at study inception (Oct 2015), using Vivli data-sharing platform. The primary outcome was the proportional biologic/placebo treatment effect on induction-of-remission in patients with short-duration (≤18months) versus long-duration disease (>18months) analyzed separately for CD and ulcerative colitis (UC). We used meta-regression to examine the impact of patients’ characteristics on the primary outcome. Study PROSPERO registration: CRD42018041961. Results We obtained data from five biologics drug manufacturers and included 25 trials, testing infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab, golimumab, natalizumab or vedolizumab (6,168 CD, 3,227 UC patients). In CD, induction-of-remission rates were higher in pooled placebo and active arms’ patients with short-disease duration≤18 months (41.4%, 244/589) compared with disease-duration>18months (29.8%, 852/2857, meta-analytically estimated OR=1.33, 95%CI:1.09–1.64). The primary outcome, proportional biologic/placebo treatment effect on induction-of-remission, was not different in short-duration disease ≤18 months (n= 589, OR 1.47, 95%CI:1.01–2.15) compared with longer disease-duration (n=2857, OR 1.43, 95%CI:1.19–1.72). In UC trials, both the proportional biologic/placebo remission-induction effect and the pooled biologic-placebo effect were stable regardless of disease duration. Primary outcome results remained unchanged when tested using alternative temporal cut-offs and when modelled for individual-patients’ co-variates, including prior anti-TNFs exposure. In exploratory post-hoc analysis comparing patients with colonic-CD (L2) versus small-bowel L1 CD (and excluding ileo-colonic L3 disease) the OR for induction-of-remission in long-duration disease>18months compared with short-duration disease was 0.62 for small-bowel CD (95%CI: 0.42; 0.91) but was not significant in pooled colonic CD population (OR=0.94, 95%CI: 0.66; 1.34) Conclusion This Individual patient level meta-analysis of clinical trials of multiple biologics found there are higher rates of induction-of-remission in early CD for both biologics and placebo, resulting in a treatment-to-placebo effect ratio which is similar across different disease durations. No such relationships between disease-duration and outcomes is found in UC
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.025 | 0.047 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.020 | 0.042 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".