P658 Evolution of disease phenotype, time to biological therapy and medium-, long-term colectomy rates in Ulcerative Colitis patients in Western Hungary – a population-based study between 2007–2018, data from the Veszprem county cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background The number of prospective population-based studies evaluating the natural disease course and surgical outcomes of ulcerative colitis (UC) are still limited from Eastern Europe. The present study is a continuation of the Veszprem IBD population-based cohort with a follow-up of the incidence and disease course of IBD since 1977. Our aim was to evaluate disease course by examining progression in disease phenotype, time to biological therapy and colectomy rates in a prospective population-based database from Veszprem Province, including incident UC patients diagnosed between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2018. Methods Data of 467 incident UC patients were analyzed (male/female: 236/1231; median age at diagnosis: 36 years(y) [IQR: 25–54]). Both in-hospital and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed at diagnosis and during clinical follow-up. The mean length of follow-up was 8.34y (SD: 3.5). Disease phenotype was evaluated based on the Montreal classification. Probability of medium-, long-term change in disease course and surgical outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. Results Disease extension was proctitis (E1), left sided colitis (E2), and extensive colitis (E3) in 22.3%/ 43.9%/ 33.8% of patients at diagnosis. The probability of disease progression into more extensive phenotype was 6.9% (SE:1.2) at 3 years, 8.3% (SE:1.3) at 5 years and 11.3% (SE:1.6) at 10 years. Figure 1. The Probability of receiving biological therapy after diagnosis was 9.9% (SE:1.4) at 3 years, 13.9% (SE:1.6) at 5 years and 17.8% (SE:2.0) at 10 years in this cohort. Overall colectomy rate was 4.1% in the total population at the end of follow-up. The probability of colectomy was 1.5% (SE:0.6) at 1 year, 3.6% (SE:0.9) at 5 years and 4.4% (SE:1.0) at 10 years in Kaplan-Meier analysis. Figure 2. Conclusion The probability of progression in disease extent was low overall, similar to results from recent pan-European population-based data. (Burisch 2019, JCC). Medium- and long-term colectomy rates were lower compared to Western European centers, but somewhat higher compared to our previous data from the Veszprem cohort (2002–2006). (Lakatos 2011, IBD).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".