Global dissemination of Influenza A virus is driven by wild bird migration through arctic and subarctic zones
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Authors: Jonathon D. Gass Jr. 1,†, Robert J. Dusek2, Jeffrey S. Hall2, Gunnar Thor Hallgrimsson3, Halldór Pálmar Halldórsson4, Solvi Runar Vignisson4,5, Sunna Bjork Ragnarsdottir6, 7, Jón Einar Jónsson8, Scott Krauss9, Sook-San Wong9,ŧ, Xiu-Feng Wan10, 11, 12, 13, Sadia Akter10, 11, 12, 13,*, Srinand Sreevatsan14, Nídia S. Trovão15, Felicia B. Nutter1, Jonathan A. Runstadler1, Nichola J. Hill1,16 1 Department of Infectious Disease and Global Health, Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine, Tufts University2 U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center3 Institute of Biology, University of Iceland 4 University of Iceland’s Research Centre in Suðurnes 5 Suðurnes Science and Learning Center6 Icelandic Institute of Natural History 7 The Southwest Iceland Nature Research Centre8 University of Iceland's Research Center at Snæfellsnes9 Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital 10 Center for Influenza and Emerging Infectious Diseases (CIEID), University of Missouri, Columbia11 Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, University of Missouri, Columbia12 Bond Life Sciences Center, University of Missouri, Columbia13 Department of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, University of Missouri, Columbia14 College of Veterinary Medicine, Michigan State University15 Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health16 Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston† Corresponding author Corresponding author email: Jonathon.gass@tufts.edu ŧ Present address: State-Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, Guangzhou Medical University and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong * Present address: Department of Molecular Microbiology, Washington University School of Medicine in St. LouisAbstractInfluenza A viruses (IAV) circulate endemically among many wild aquatic bird populations that seasonally migrate between wintering grounds in southern latitudes to breeding ranges along the perimeter of the circumpolar arctic. Arctic and subarctic zones are hypothesized to serve as ecologic drivers of the intercontinental movement and reassortment of IAVs due to high densities of disparate populations of long distance migratory and native bird species present during breeding seasons. Iceland is a staging ground that connects the East Atlantic and North Atlantic American flyways, providing a unique study system for characterizing viral flow between eastern and western hemispheres. Using Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we sought to evaluate the viral connectivity of Iceland to proximal regions and how inter-species transmission and reassortment dynamics in this region influence the geographic spread of low and highly pathogenic IAVs. Findings demonstrate that IAV movement in the arctic and subarctic reflects wild bird migration around the perimeter of the circumpolar north, favoring short-distance flights between proximal regions rather than long distance flights over the polar interior. Iceland connects virus movement between mainland Europe and North America, consistent with the westward migration of wild birds from mainland Europe to Northeastern Canada and Greenland. Though virus diffusion rates were similar among avian taxonomic groups in Iceland, gulls play an outsized role as sinks of IAVs from other avian hosts prior to onward migration. These data identify patterns of virus movement in northern latitudes and inform future surveillance strategies related to seasonal and emergent IAVs with potential public health concern. Keywords: Influenza A virus, Iceland, wild birds, phylodynamics, transmission, subarctic
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".