Inf-Convolution, Optimal Allocations, and Model Uncertainty for Tail Risk Measures
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Inspired by the recent developments in risk sharing problems for the value at risk (VaR), the expected shortfall (ES), and the range value at risk (RVaR), we study the optimization of risk sharing for general tail risk measures. Explicit formulas of the inf-convolution and Pareto-optimal allocations are obtained in the case of a mixed collection of left and right VaRs, and in that of a VaR and another tail risk measure. The inf-convolution of tail risk measures is shown to be a tail risk measure with an aggregated tail parameter, a phenomenon very similar to the cases of VaR, ES, and RVaR. Optimal allocations are obtained in the settings of elliptical models and model uncertainty. In particular, several results are established for tail risk measures in the presence of model uncertainty, which may be of independent interest outside the framework of risk sharing. The technical conclusions are quite general without assuming any form of convexity of the tail risk measures. Our analysis generalizes in several directions the recent literature on quantile-based risk sharing.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it