Regional developments and outlook
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The economies of the developed countries still face strong headwinds in their struggle to return to sustained growth. The Great Recession left a host of troublesome legacies: continued deleveraging by households and firms, which is holding back consumption and investment demand; still fragile banking sectors whose lending to the private sector is not yet normalized; depressed housing markets that put additional strains on the banking system and hold back consumer spending and construction investment; and substantially deteriorated fiscal balances and rising public indebtedness that Governments are trying to redress through fiscal austerity, but which, in already depressed economic situations, is further pushing up unemployment rates and slowing economic recovery. Unemployment rates remain high in most developed economies and in some cases have reached disturbing levels, affecting a quarter or more of the work force. A large share of workers remains without having had a job for a year or longer, a major social concern that threatens to lower long-run economic growth. Slower growth in emerging market economies, which had proved a strong support to global growth since the end of the Great Recession, started to compound these difficulties in the course of 2012. Many of these factors have also led to a tremendous drop in confidence by both firms and consumers, leading to postponed investment and consumption decisions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.187 | 0.118 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".